For the
Re-Creation and Development of Individual, Collective, Local and Global Alternatives
World Scientists' Warning to Humanity
18 Nov, 1992
Human beings and the natural world are on a collision
course. Human activities inflict harsh and often
irreversible damage on the environment and on critical
resources. If not checked, many of our current practices
put at serious risk the future that we wish for human
society and the plant and animal kingdoms, and may so alter
the living world that it will be unable to sustain life in
the manner that we know. Fundamental changes are urgent if
we are to avoid the collision our present course will bring
about.
The Environment
The environment is suffering critical stress.
The Atmosphere
Stratospheric ozone depletion threatens us with
enhanced ultra-violet radiation at the earth's surface,
which can be damaging or lethal to many life forms. Air
pollution near ground level, and acid precipitation, are
already causing widespread injury to humans, forests and
crops.
Water Resources
Heedless exploitation of depletable ground water
supplies endangers food production and other essential
human systems. Heavy demands on the world's surface
waters have resulted in serious shortages in some 80
countries, containing 40% of the world's population.
Pollution of rivers, lakes and ground water further
limits the supply.
Oceans
Destructive pressure on the oceans is severe,
particularly in the coastal regions which produce most of
the world's food fish. The total marine catch is now at
or above the estimated maximum sustainable yield. Some
fisheries have already shown signs of collapse. Rivers
carrying heavy burdens of eroded soil into the seas also
carry industrial, municipal, agricultural, and livestock
waste -- some of it toxic
Soil
Loss of soil productivity, which is causing extensive
Land abandonment, is a widespread byproduct of current
practices in agriculture and animal husbandry. Since
1945, 11% of the earth's vegetated surface has been
degraded -- an area larger than India and China combined
-- and per capita food production in many parts of the
world is decreasing.
Forests
Tropical rain forests, as well as tropical and
temperate dry forests, are being destroyed rapidly. At
present rates, some critical forest types will be gone in
a few years and most of the tropical rain forest will be
gone before the end of the next century. With them will
go large numbers of plant and animal species.
Living Species
The irreversible loss of species, which by 2100 may
reach one third of all species now living, is especially
serious. We are losing the potential they hold for
providing medicinal and other benefits, and the
contribution that genetic diversity of life forms gives
to the robustness of the world's biological systems and
to the astonishing beauty of the earth itself.
Much of this damage is irreversible on a scale of
centuries or permanent. Other processes appear to pose
additional threats. Increasing levels of gases in the
atmosphere from human activities, including carbon dioxide
released from fossil fuel burning and from deforestation,
may alter climate on a global scale. Predictions of global
warming are still uncertain -- with projected effects
ranging from tolerable to very severe -- but the potential
risks are very great.
Our massive tampering with the world's interdependent web
of life -- coupled with the environmental damage inflicted
by deforestation, species loss, and climate change -- could
trigger widespread adverse effects, including unpredictable
collapses of critical biological systems whose interactions
and dynamics we only imperfectly understand.
Uncertainty over the extent of these effects cannot
excuse complacency or delay in facing the threat.
Population
The earth is finite. Its ability to absorb wastes and
destructive effluent is finite. Its ability to provide food
and energy is finite. Its ability to provide for growing
numbers of people is finite. And we are fast approaching
many of the earth's limits. Current economic practices
which damage the environment, in both developed and
underdeveloped nations, cannot be continued without the
risk that vital global systems will be damaged beyond
repair.
Pressures resulting from unrestrained population growth
put demands on the natural world that can overwhelm any
efforts to achieve a sustainable future. If we are to halt
the destruction of our environment, we must accept limits
to that growth. A World Bank estimate indicates that world
population will not stabilize at less than 12.4 billion,
while the United Nations concludes that the eventual total
could reach 14 billion, a near tripling of today's 5.4
billion. But, even at this moment, one person in five
lives in absolute poverty without enough to eat, and one in
ten suffers serious malnutrition.
No more than one or a few decades remain before the chance
to avert the threats we now confront will be lost and the
prospects for humanity immeasurably diminished.
Warning
We the undersigned, senior members of the world's
scientific community, hereby warn all humanity of what lies
ahead. A great change in our stewardship of the earth and
the life on it, is required, if vast human misery is to be
avoided and our global home on this planet is not to be
irretrievably mutilated.
What we must do
Five inextricably linked areas must be addressed
simultaneously:
1. We must bring environmentally damaging activities under
control to restore and protect the integrity of the
earth's systems we depend on.
We must, for example, move away from fossil fuels to
more benign, inexhaustible energy sources to cut
greenhouse gas emissions and the pollution of our air
and water. Priority must be given to the development of
energy sources matched to third world needs; small scale
and relatively easy to implement.
We must halt deforestation, injury to and loss of
agricultural land, and the loss of terrestrial and
marine plant and animal species.
2. We must manage resources crucial to human welfare more
effectively.
We must give high priority to efficient use of energy,
water, and other materials, including expansion of
conservation and recycling.
3. We must stabilize population. This will be possible only
if all nations recognize that it requires improved
social and economic conditions, and the adoption of
effective, voluntary family planning.
4. We must reduce and eventually eliminate poverty.
5. We must ensure sexual equality, and guarantee women
control over their own reproductive decisions.
The developed nations are the largest polluters in the
world today. They must greatly reduce their
overconsumption, if we are to reduce pressures on resources
and the global environment. The developed nations have the
obligation to provide aid and support to developing
nations, because only the developed nations have the
financial resources and the technical skills for these
tasks.
Acting on this recognition is not altruism, but
enlightened self-interest: whether industrialized or not,
we all have but one lifeboat. No nation can escape from
injury when global biological systems are damaged. No
nation can escape from conflicts over increasingly scarce
resources. In addition, environmental and economic
instabilities will cause mass migrations with incalculable
consequences for developed and undeveloped nations alike.
Developing nations must realize that environmental damage
is one of the gravest threats they face, and that attempts
to blunt it will be overwhelmed if their populations go
unchecked. The greatest peril is to become trapped in
spirals of environmental decline, poverty, and unrest,
leading to social, economic and environmental collapse.
Success in this global endeavor will require a great
reduction in violence and war. Resources now devoted to
the preparation and conduct of war -- amounting to over $1
trillion annually -- will be badly needed in the new tasks
and should be diverted to the new challenges.
A new ethic is required -- a new attitude towards
discharging our responsibility for caring for ourselves and
for the earth. We must recognize the earth's limited
capacity to provide for us. We must recognize its
fragility. We must no longer allow it to be ravaged. This
ethic must motivate a great movement, convince reluctant
leaders and reluctant governments and reluctant peoples
themselves to effect the needed changes.
The scientists issuing this warning hope that our message
will reach and affect people everywhere. We need the help
of many.
We require the help of the world community of scientists
-- natural, social, economic, political;
We require the help of the world's business and industrial
leaders;
We require the help of the worlds religious leaders; and
We require the help of the world's peoples.
We call on all to join us in this task.
Prominent Individuals among more than 1500 Signatories
- Anatole Abragam, Physicist; Fmr. Member, Pontifical Academy
of Sciences; France
- Carlos Aguirre President, Academy of Sciences, Bolivia
- Walter Alvarez Geologist, National Academy of Sciences, USA
- Viqar Uddin Ammad, Chemist, Pakistani & Third World
Academies, Pakistan
- Claude Allegre, Geophysicist, Crafoord Prize, France
- Michael Alpers Epidemiologist, Inst. of Med. Research, Papua
New Guinea
- Anne Anastasi, Psychologist, National Medal of Science, USA
- Philip Anderson, Nobel laureate, Physics; USA
- Christian Anfinsen, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; USA
- How Ghee Ang, Chemist, Third World Academy, Singapore
- Werner Arber, Nobel laureate, Medicine; Switzerland
- Mary Ellen Avery, Pediatrician, National Medal of Science,
USA
- Julius Axelrod, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
- Michael Atiyah, Mathematician; President, Royal Society;
Great Britain
- Howard Bachrach, Biochemist, National Medal of Science, USA
- John Backus, Computer Scientist, National Medal of Science,
USA
- Achmad Baiquni, Physicist, Indonesian & Third World
Academies, Indonesia
- David Baltimore, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
- H. A. Barker, Biochemist, National Medal of Science, USA
- Francisco J. Barrantes, Biophysicist, Third World Academy,
Argentina
- David Bates, Physicist, Royal Irish Academy, Ireland
- Alan Battersby, Chemist, Wolf Prize in Chemistry, Great
Britain
- Baruj Benacerraf, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
- Georg Bednorz, Nobel laureate, Physics; Switzerland
- Germot Bergold, Inst. Venezolano de Investigaciones
Cientificas, Venezuela
- Sune Bergstrom, Nobel laureate, Medicine; Sweden
- Daniel Bes, Physicist, Argentinean & Third World Academies,
Argentina
- Hans Bethe, Nobel laureate, Physics; USA
- Arthur Birch Chemist, Australian Academy of Science,
Australia
- Michael Bishop, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
- Konrad Bloch, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
- Nicholaas Bloembergen, Nobel laureate, Physics; USA
- David Mervyn Blow, Wolf Prize in Chemistry, Great Britain
- Baruch Blumberg, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
- Bert Bolin, Meteorologist, Tyler Prize, Sweden
- Norman Borlaug, Agricultural Scientist, Nobel laureate,
Peace; USA & Mexico
- Frederick Bormann, Forest Ecologist; Past President,
Ecological Soc. of Amer.; USA
- Raoul Bott, Mathematician, National Medal of Science, USA
- Ronald Breslow, Chemist, National Medal of Science
- Ricardo Bressani, Inst. of Nutrition, Guatemalan & Third
World Academies, Guatemala
- Hermann Bruck, Astronomer, Pontifical Academy of Sciences,
Great Britain
- Gerardo Budowski, Natural Resources, Univ. Para La Paz,
Costa Rica
- E. Margaret Burbidge, Astronomer, National Medal of
Science, USA
- Robert Burris, Biochemist, Wolf Prize in Agriculture, USA
- Glenn Burton, Geneticist, National Medal of Science, USA
- Adolph Butenandt, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; Fmr.
President, Max Planck Inst.; Germany
- Sergio Cabrera, Biologist, Univ. de Chile, Chile
- Paulo C. Campos, Medical scientist, Philippine & Third
World Academies, Philippines
- Ennio Candotti, Physicist; President, Brazilian Soc. Adv.
of Science; Brazil
- Henri Cartan, Wolf Prize in Mathematics, France
- Carlos Chagas, Biologist; Univ. de Rio de Janeiro; Fmr.
President, Pontifical Academy of Sciences; Brazil
- Sivaramakrishna Chandrasekhar, Center for Liquid Crystal
Research, India
- Georges Charpak, Nobel laureate, Physics; France
- Joseph Chatt, Wolf Prize in Chemistry, Great Britain
- Shiing-Shen Chern, Wolf Prize in Mathematics, China & USA
- Christopher Chetsanga, Biochemist, Affican & Third World
Academies, Zimbabwe
- Morris Cohen, Engineering, National Medal of Science, USA
- Stanley Cohen, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
- Stanley N. Cohen, Geneticist, Wolf Prize in Medicine, USA
- Mildred Cohn, Biochemist, National Medal of Science, USA
- E. J. Corey, Nobel laureate, Chemistry, USA
- John Cornforth, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; Great Britain
- Hector Croxatto, Physiologist, Pontifical & Third World
Academies, Chile
- Paul Crutzen, Chemist, Tyler Prize, Germany
- Partha Dasgupta, Economist, Royal Society, Great Britain
- Jean Dausset, Nobel laureate, Medicine; France
- Ogulande Robert Davidson, Univ. Res. & Dev. Serv., African
Acad., Sierra Leone
- Margaret Davis, Ecologist, National Academy of Sciences,
USA
- Luis D'Croz, Limnologist, Univ. de Panama, Panama
- Gerard Debreu, Nobel laureate, Economics; USA
- Pierre-Gilles de Gennes, Nobel laureate, Physics; France
- Johann Deisenhofer, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; Germany &
USA
- Frederica de Laguna, Anthropologist, National Academy of
Sciences, USA
- Paul-Yves Denis, Geographer, Academy of Sciences, Canada
- Pierre Deligne, Mathematician, Crafoord Prize, France
- Frank Dixon, Pathologist, Lasker Award, USA
- Johanna Dobereiner, Biologist, First Sec., Brazilian
Academy of Sci.; Pontifical & Third World Academies,
Brazil
- Joseph Doob, Mathematician, National Medal of Science, USA
- Renato Dulbecco, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
- Heneri Dzinotyiweyi, Mathematician, African & Third World
Academies, Zimbabwe
- Manfred Eigen, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; Germany
- Samuel Eilenberg, Wolf Prize in Mathematics, USA
- Mahdi Elmandjra, Economist; Vice President, African Academy
of Sciences; Morocco
- Paul Ehrlich, Biologist, Crafoord Prize, USA
- Thomas Eisner, Biologist, Tyler Prize, USA
- Mohammed T. El-Ashry, Environmental scientist, Third World
Academy, Egypt & USA
- Gertrude Elion, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
- Aina Elvius, Astronomer, Royal Academy of Sciences, Sweden
- K. O. Emery, Oceanographer, National Academy of Sciences,
USA
- Paul Erdos, Wolf Prize in Mathematics, Hungary
- Richard Ernst, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; Switzerland
Vittorio Ersparmer, Pharmacologist, Accademia Nazionale dei
Lincei, Italy
- Sandra Faber, Astronomer, National Academy of Sciences, USA
- Nina Federoff, Embryologist, National Academy of Sciences,
USA
- Herman Feshbach, Physicist, National Medal of Science, USA
- Inga Fischer-Hjalmars, Biologist, Royal Academy of
Sciences, Sweden
- Michael Ellis Fisher, Physicist, Wolf Prize in Physics,
Great Britain & USA
- Val Fitch, Nobel laureate, Physics; USA
- Daflinn Follesdal, President, Norwegian Academy of Science;
Norway
- William Fowler, Nobel laureate, Physics; USA
- Otto Frankel, Geneticist, Australian Academy of Sciences,
Australia
- Herbert Friedman, Wolf Prize in Physics, USA
- Jerome Friedman, Nobel laureate, Physics; USA
- Konstantin V. Frolov Engineer; Vice President, Russian
Academy of Sciences; Russia
- Kenichi Fukui, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; Japan
- Madhav Gadgil, Ecologist, National Science Academy, India
- Mary Gaillard, Physicist, National Academy of Sciences. USA
- Carleton Gajdusek, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
- Robert Gallo, Research Scientist, Lasker Award, USA
- Rodrigo Gamez ,Instituto Nacional de Biodiversidad, Costa
Rica
- Antonio Garcia-Bellido, Biologist, Univ. Auto. Madrid,
Royal Society, Spain
- Leopoldo Garcia-Collin, Physicist, Latin American & Third
World Academies, Mexico
- Percy Garnham, Royal Society & Pontifical Academy, Great
Britain
- Richard Garwin, Physicist, National Academy of Sciences,
USA
- Murray Gell-Mann, Nobel laureate, Physics; USA
- Georgii Georgiev, Biologist, Lenin Prize, Russia
- Humam Bishara Ghassib, Physicist, Third World Academy,
Jordan
- Ricardo Giacconi, Astronomer, Wolf Prize in Physics, USA
- Eleanor J. Gibson, Psychologist, National Medal of Science,
USA
- Marvin Goldberger, Physicist; Fmr. President, Calif. Inst.
of Tech., USA
- Maurice Goldhaber, Wolf Prize in Physics, USA
- Donald Glaser, Nobel laureate, Physics; USA
- Sheldon Glashow, Nobel laureate, Physics; USA
- James Gowans, Wolf Prize in Medicine, France
- Roger Green, Anthropologist, Royal Society, New Zealand
- Peter Greenwood, Ichthyologist, Royal Society, Great
Britain
- Edward Goldberg, Chemist, Tyler Prize, USA
- Coluthur Gopolan, Nutrition Foundation of India, Indian &
Third World Academies, India
- Stephen Jay Gould, Paleontologist, Author, Harvard Univ.,
USA
- Roger Guillemin, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
- Herbert Gutowsky, Wolf Prize in Chemistry, USA
- Erwin Hahn, Wolf Prize in Physics, USA
- Gonzalo Halffter, Ecologist, Inst. Pol. Nac. ,Mexico
- Kerstin Hall, Endocrinologist, Royal Academy of Sciences,
Sweden
- Mohammed Ahmed Hamdan, Mathematician, Third World, Academy,
Jordan
- Adnan Hamoui, Mathematician, Third World, Academy, Kuwait
- A. M. Harun-ar Rashid, Physicist; Sec., Bangladesh, Academy
of Sci., Bangladesh
- Mohammed H. A. Hassan, Physicist; Exec. Sec., Third World
Academy of Sciences; Sudan & Italy
- Ahmed Hassanli, Chemist, African Academy of Sciences,
Tanzania & Kenya
- Herbert Hauptman, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; USA
- Stephen Hawking, Mathematician, Wolf Prize in Physics,
Great Britain
- Elizabeth Hay, Biologist, National Academy of Sciences, USA
- Dudley Herschbach, Nobel laureate, Chemistry, USA
- Gerhard Herzberg, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; Canada
- Antony Hewish, Nobel laureate, Physics; Great Britain
- George Hitchings, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
- Dorothy Crowfoot Hodgkin, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; Great
Britain
- Roald Hoffman, Nobel laureate, Chemistry; USA
- Robert Holley, Nobel laureate, Medicine; USA
- Nick Holonyak, Electrical Engineer, National Medal of
Science, USA
- Lars Hormander, Wolf Prize in Mathematics, Sweden
- Dorothy Horstmann, Epidemiologist, National Academy of
Sciences, USA
- John Houghton, Meteorologist; Chairman, Science Working
Group, IPCC; Great Britain
- Sarah Hrdy, Anthropologist, National Academy of Sciences,
USA
- Kenneth Hsu, Geologist, Third World Academy, China &
Switzerland
- Kun Huang, Physicist, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
- Hiroshi Inose, Electrical Engineer; Vice President,
Engineering Academy; Japan
- Turner T. Isoun, Pathologist, African Academy of Sciences,
- Nigeria Francois Jacob, Nobel laureate, Medicine; France
- Carl-Olof Jacobson Zoologist; Sec-Gen., Royal Academy of
Sciences; Sweden
- ... list was shortened, to fit in one message ...
- Alexander L. Yanshin, Geologist, Karpinsky Gold Medal,
Russia
- Yongyuth Yuthavong, Biochemist; Director, National Sci. &
Tech. Devl. Agency, Thailand
- Zhao Zhong-xian, Physicist, Chinese & Third World
Academies, China
- Zhou Guang-zhao, Physicist; President, Chinese Academy of
Sciences;, China
- Solly ZuckerInan, Zoologist, Royal Society, Great Britain
Over 1,500 members of national, regional, and international
science academies have signed the Warning. Sixtynine
nations from all parts of Earth are represented, including
each of the twelve most populous nations and the nineteen
largest economic powers. The full list includes a majority
of the Nobel laureates in the sciences. Awards and
institutional affiliations are listed for the purpose of
identification only. The Nobel Prize in medicine is for
physiology or medicine.
Union of Concerned Scientists
96 Church Street,
Cambridge, Mass 02238-9105, USA
Warning issued on November 18, 1992
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